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THE MAGIC OF FIVE
INFORMATION OVERLOAD!
Plan to gather a ton of information before making a decision? If you're ancient like me, you may recall that the BEATLES — aka the Fab Four — were rather fond of the Number “9”, but Dr Richard J. Heuer, a researcher with the CIA has determined that you’re most likely better off using the Number “5”. Five pieces of reliable information that is!
That’s all you really need!
Heuer gave eight race handicappers 88 traits normally found in a race form and used to handicap races; things like jockey weight, percentage of first, second or third place finishes, track conditions, number of races run, etc. They picked and ranked the 40 most important traits needed to predict a race. Then, using real, but anonymous race information, each predicted the outcomes of dozens and dozens of races using first the top five traits, and then the next 10, 20 and 40 most important.
Each handicapper predicted each race at least four times, also indicating level of confidence with each prediction. The result...
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Once past the five traits identified as ”most important", the average accuracy remained the same — no matter how many more traits were used. In fact, accuracy went down in some cases with more than five traits, a classic example of information overload.
Another interesting observation was that the handicappers' confidence level improved as more traits were used, even though they were not actually doing any better at predicting!
Citing other research, Heuer says the magic number five appears to apply to any analysis — psychologists identifying behavioral traits, weather forecasters, brokers predicting market performance and of course, race handicappers.
MEANWHILE BACK IN THE SAND BOX, WORK IS STARTING TO PILE UP!
In his book At Home in the Universe Dr. Stuart Kauffman, a scientist in search of the “laws of self organization and complexity” at Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico, compares life and all its millions of ecosystems to a sand pile.
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Sand, added one grain at a time, often doesn't have a lot of impact. But there comes a point when a single grain of sand will cause an disruption or avalanche. The sand pile is always on the edge of 'chaos', says Kauffman, a lot of small avalanches and a few big ones between spurts of growth. All entities are built in this same manner, says Kauffman, some faster than others, but alternating between growth and disintegration.
Ecosystems have bursts of creation followed by slow death, extended by renewed bursts of creation. One ‘grain of sand', a seemingly innocent addition, can cause immense change and even catastrophe, says Kauffmann, noting that 99% of all species and all companies no longer exist. How adaptable — how well we bounce back from disaster — ultimately determines survival rate.
Kauffman has built complex charts, graphs and models of sand avalanches to predict transitions and event outcomes. He has determined that five is the MAGIC NUMBER for sand grains...
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Six tends to hasten disintegration, while four tends to be frozen and inflexible.
STRESSWHERE
BRAINWHERE
DECISIONWHERE
